There are two main sources of official statistics on crime: the police recorded series and the British Crime Survey (BCS). The BCS is a nationally representative sample survey of the population resident in households in England and Wales, now based on more than 45,000 respondents.
 
As a household based survey, the BCS does not cover all offences or all population groups. While police recorded crime has a wider coverage of offences, including crimes such as drug and sexual offences, and covers the entire population, it does not include those crimes not reported to the police. Both sources have their strengths and weaknesses but together provide a more comprehensive picture than either on its own. Home Secretary Theresa May has announced a review by the national statistician, with the publication of crime statistics transferred from the Home Office to an independent body to improve “public trust and confidence in crime statistics.”

The most striking new finding within the latest report is that both the 2009/10 BCS and police recorded crime are consistent in showing falls in overall crime compared with 2008/09. Overall BCS crime decreased by nine per cent (from 10.5 million crimes to 9.6 million crimes), and police recorded crime by eight per cent (from 4.7 million to 4.3 million crimes). Both sources are consistent in showing marked falls in vehicle crime (BCS vehicle-related theft down 17% and police recorded vehicle crime down 16%). In addition, the 9% fall in domestic burglary from the BCS is broadly in line with the 6% reduction recorded by the police. The 2009/10 BCS shows there were an estimated 659,000 domestic burglary incidents in England and Wales. The number of incidents of theft from the person fell by 28 per cent. Overall police recorded property crime fell by ten per cent between 2008/09 and 2009/10, from 3,352,989 offences to 3,032,182. There were falls in all main recorded property crime categories.

Over recent years there has been an overall reduction in violent crime estimated by the BCS, consistent with trends in police recorded crime. The murder rate in England and Wales has fallen from 644 to 619 over the last year to its lowest level for 12 years. Police recorded violence against the person fell by four per cent between 2008/09 and 2009/10. Longer term trends from the BCS show violent crime down by 50 per cent from its peak in 1995. Sexual offences recorded by the police increased between 2008/09 and 2009/10 by six per cent. Within this category, there was a seven per cent increase in ‘Most serious sexual crime’ and a two per cent increase in ‘Other sexual offences’ over the same period. This increase coincides with steps the police have been taking to improve the recording of serious sexual offences. Police recorded drug offences fell by four per cent between 2008/09 and 2009/10, this being the first year-on-year fall since the police were given greater powers to issue warnings for cannabis possession in 2004/05, which account for over two-thirds of drug offences.

There is a clear pattern from the BCS of crime reaching a peak in 1995 with a subsequent decline, with overall crime down by 50 per cent since 1995. The full 200 page text of the ‘Crime in England and Wales 2009/10’ report, full of fascinating details, charts and diagrams, can be found at:

http://rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs10/hosb1210.pdf

One of the more surprising pledges in the Coalition programme for government was: “We will extend anonymity in rape cases to defendants.” This move would turn the clock back to 1976, when the Sexual Offences Act introduced anonymity for those accused of rape. The provision was later repealed.

 This proposal has produced a storm of adverse publicity. Granting anonymity to defendants accused of rape could lead to serial attackers slipping through the net, campaigners, victims and lawyers have warned. Women who had not previously had the confidence to report a rape were often inspired to do so after seeing media reports naming and picturing the same man. Ruth Hall, a spokeswoman for Women against Rape, said that the proposal could put women off coming forward to report rapes, hitting the already low conviction rate. Concern has been expressed that the proposal, intended to protect men from the damaging impact of false allegations, gave the impression that women frequently lie about rape. Baroness Stern, in her review of rape (see blog posted on 25 March), said that the subject of false allegations came up so often in discussions about rape, and the information about the prevalence of false allegations is so scanty, that research should be undertaken to establish their frequency before any view was reached on anonymity for defendants. As reported in the ‘Guardian’, Labour peer Helena Kennedy QC said the naming of accused rapists helped police investigations. “People who commit crimes like rape and serious crimes of violence, particularly sexually motivated ones, are often repeat offenders,” she said. “What the police will tell you is that very often the exposure of the identity of the accused brings forward other people.”

Speaking in the adjournment debate in the House of Commons on 7 June, Caroline Flint said: “Those proposals, if implemented, would deter victims from coming forward and make it far more difficult for the police to charge offenders and convict rapists. We know that many rapists are serial offenders; their trail of victims often runs into double digits. Many women – for a variety of reasons – do not come forward straight away. They are afraid; they want to pretend it never happened. They are embarrassed; they feel as though they did something wrong. They are ashamed; they believe that what happened was their fault. They feel alone.” She will have been aware that she was pressing on a door which, if not open, was certainly not locked. Earlier in the day, also in the Commons, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg signalled a new willingness to drop the government’s plans. He said: “Everybody is united in wanting the conviction rates for rape to increase. Everybody wants more support to be provided to victims of rape so that they come forward in the first place, while also wanting to minimise the stigma attached to those who might be falsely accused. However, I want to make it clear that, although the Government have proposed the idea, we want to listen to everybody who has a stake or expertise in or insight into the matter. If our idea does not withstand sincere scrutiny, we will of course be prepared to change it.”

“It is a national disgrace that in 2009 rape almost always goes unpunished” writes Libby Brooks in the ‘Guardian’. “This is about systemic, institutionalised negligence. If you are raped, the likelihood is that the police won’t help you, and the CPS won’t help you. If you unusually achieve a trial, the prosecution won’t help you and the judge won’t help you”.

The statistics of rape are difficult to pin down. The British Crime Survey in 2000 calculated that 754,000 women had been raped at least once, 61,000 in the previous year. The group Campaign to End Rape estimated that in 2001 there were 190,000 serious sex assaults and 47,000 rape or attempted rape victims. As all figures are considered to be underestimated the incidence is staggering. The great majority of victims never report their attack, and of those that do only 25% will make it to court because the obstacles for a complainant remain enormous. In 2003/04 there were 12,354 recorded offences of rape. The persistently low conviction rate is just over 6%.

So embarrassing has been the failure to deal effectively with rape cases that the Home Office this week announced a series of new measures. An additional £1.8m is to be provided to set up more sexual assault referral centres, which “play a vital role in providing care and support for victims, while also giving investigators the best chance to build a successful case. They provide victims with immediate medical help, counselling, forensic examinations and the opportunity to give evidence anonymously, all in one location”. There will be training for police officers on what to do when a rape is first reported. Victims will meet with a specially trained officer within an hour of reporting the crime. There will be additional help for police and prosecutors investigating rape cases, to ensure that crimes are solved and attackers are punished. Targets will be set for rape investigations, and a Rape Performance Group set up, charged with quarterly monitoring and assessment of police and the Crown Prosecution Service’s handling of rape cases.

Introducing the new initiative, Home Office Minister Vernon Coaker called sexual assault cases “uniquely difficult crimes to investigate”. In a clearly coordinated move the CPS last month published a revised ‘Policy for Prosecuting Cases of Rape’ detailing all the steps (and difficulties) of such cases. It concludes with the not exactly resounding commitment “to playing our part in improving the way that rape cases are dealt with in the criminal justice system. We want victims to have confidence in the way in which we review and progress cases”. But campaigners are not impressed. According to Libby Brooks, Britain has some of the best sex crimes legislation in Europe, but a police service that won’t enforce it, a judiciary that refuses to apply it and a government that gives it insufficient priority.